8:08PM: Rival general managers have been told that Machado’s offer from the Padres is at least eight years/$240MM with deferred money, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).  Some other GMs, however, have been told that Machado has been offered $280MM.

7:42PM: The Padres are thought to have offered Manny Machado a contract in the neighborhood of eight years and $250MM, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link), while the club has reportedly issued an even larger offer to Bryce Harper.  The exact total of the Machado offer is, as Heyman noted, an estimate, as that deal could include deferred money or some adjustment based on California’s higher taxation rates.  Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (also via Twitter) believes the Padres’ offer to Machado is beyond the $250MM mark, though Acee isn’t certain about the number of years involved in the contract.

While still short of the potential record-setting numbers thrown around for both Harper and Machado prior to the start of free agency, and even seemingly still shy of the $300MM threshold, it’s worth noting that only three contracts in baseball history (Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325MM deal with the Marlins, and Alex Rodriguez’s deals with the Rangers and Yankees) have topped the $250MM plateau.  The Padres’ two offers are more akin to the type of long-term deals many expected the two free agent superstars to receive en masse this winter.

Either deal would represent easily the biggest contract in the history of the Padres franchise, far outpacing the $144MM signed by Eric Hosmer last offseason.  While San Diego has never traditionally been a big spender, MLBTR’s Rob Huff recently made the case that the team is capable of handling the giant contract required to land Machado or Harper.  Hosmer and Wil Myers (at admittedly hefty salaries) are the only contracts on the books beyond the 2020 season, plus the Padres have an inexpensive core of talent headed to the big leagues in the form of their top-rated minor league system.  Between some creative contractual measures like deferrals, opt-outs, a dual option (a recent favorite of Scott Boras, Harper’s agent), there certainly seems to be room to fit a mega-contract under San Diego’s payroll going forward.

Padres executives have personally met with both Harper and Machado in recent weeks, and San Diego’s late entry as a suitor for both players seems to have been inspired by the fact that both are still on the market this deep into the offseason.  In short, the Padres could be a classic “mystery team” scenario — the unexpected club that emerges as a late bidder and potentially walks away with a star.  It should be noted that the Padres surprised many by signing Hosmer last year, and also when they landed James Shields in February 2015, during A.J. Preller’s news-making (and ultimately ill-fated) first offseason as San Diego’s general manager.

Reports from earlier today suggested that the Phillies were considered as the favorites to sign Harper, though connected teams like the White Sox, Giants, and Nationals hadn’t yet been ruled out.  Machado’s market has been more limited, with only the Phillies and White Sox known to be clear bidders, and the Yankees perhaps on the outskirts looking for a shorter-term deal.  The White Sox had reportedly made a bid of seven years and $175MM to Machado, though his agent strongly denied those numbers were accurate.

They could up it. If you read on twitter they can go even more money in deferments to stop the California tax

I am a die hard fan, but I moved away from Philadelphia years ago. Nice place to visit, good food, and all… But glad I left.

But to correct some of the naysayers – they can afford to live in the suburbs far away from the city. Heck, with that contract I would buy lots of land in northern Bucks or Montgomery counties.

No they love on south Jersey, only a very few live on the mainline, I live near there and it was AI and Ryan Howard and both have moved when they retired. Philly is great, tons of jobs, good food and beer scene, lots to do.

Everyone is aware about how much the Phillies have to spend. They just love ignoring the fact that Harper wants to play on the west coast, Philly is not his ideal choice.

Reports are they’re only in for one, though, having spent money in DRob, Segura, and McCutcheon. Either is fine.

If this is true, it would be absolutely amazing if both accepted the offers and San Diego is on the hook for half billion dollars to two players

I would imagine both players have been informed that if one of them accepts the offer then the offer to the other immediately comes off the table.

Stop framing baseball success by how much an owner “overpays” (again, a made up term and number) for a player. Stop caring about owners money. Stop it.

Has nothing to do with caring about the owners money but when one contract hurts your team in the long run because of too much money tied to one player.

Dropping half a billion dollars on an Outfielder and an Infielder is the dumbest thing any franchise could.

You cannot be more wrong. My god, stop bootlicking billionaires for one second and realize that owner profits are literally 10x whatever Harper gets this offseason, and wonder why its important that owners set budget limits when theyre making more profit than the people who drive 100% of that profit.

When Harper begins to be responsible for a team’s operating costs, then, you would be right. Otherwise, stop whining about owners.

Teams still have operational budgets that every business has to work within, just because the owners can afford major losses doesn’t mean they should try to spend as much as possible just for the sake of spending. Especially on players with as much risk as these two jokers. I’m not for the owners either, but with the way the current cba is structured, it would not make sense for a small market team to spend so much on two players

on an OF and IF as opposed to what? A DH, SP or C? Im missing your point. If ANY owner decides to spend money then it’s their job to understand and foresee other areas of need in the next 3-5 years. if they get stuck it’s on them.

I ironically the yankees have NOT issued the two largest deals in history (Arod and Stanton) but acquired both plus cash from the teams that did because they allegedly couldn’t afford them any longer.

Sigh…. every post on mlbtr nowadays eventually becomes an owner profit vs player salary debate. Shows how divided we are on political lines that we get so heated about one millionaire group vs another. Maybe we should just enjoy the game and let them worry about it?

Why do fans believe this? Salaries have nothing to do with ticket prices. The cost of ticket prices is based on what people are willing to spend.

it’s less to do with how many people attend games. it has more to do with how many expensive tickets they sell and how much they make from tv deals.

@strike four: You can talk about basic economics all day long around here and attract nothing but downvotes. The grasp of fundamentals just isn’t there. It seems hardly anybody takes even gut-level econ courses anymore.

Serious question here. Can anyone give a handful of examples (not 1 aberration please) where payroll of a team has increased and average cost of all of that team’s ticket prices has decreased?

Retire1 u are completely correct, there are no examples because that’s not how things work Let’s say this one more time for all these people that can’t seem to understand: TICKET PRICES ARE NOT EFFECTED BY PLAYERS SALARIES!!!!!!!!!!!

Can anyone give an example of ticket prices going down ever? In anything? Tickets are priced what the market will bear. Ticket revenue is a tiny part of a team’s revenue stream – MLBAM, TV Money, the bamtech money, and tons of other factors are much greater than ticket sales; I mean, almost half the revenue from ticket sales goes to the visiting team, and then you have to pay the employees working at the stadium and the overhead involved in putting on a major league baseball game. Very little of your ticket money goes to pay a player’s contract.

In a way, that becomes more of the problem – teams are raking in money hand over fist even without winning. When ticket revenues were the primary revenue stream, teams had to try to win to make money, or else they became feeder teams for the big boys (think of the old Kansas City A’s-Yankees pipeline), selling off their players to the highest bidder. The fact that winning has little to do with revenue anymore is, in large part, why we’re seeing so little action on the biggest free agents this year.

Yes, this. Setting aside media revenues for the moment, which are a huge part of the revenues for any team, ticket prices are dependent entirely on how many fans are interested in buying them and how much they are prepared to pay. If ownership fields a lousy team they may have to lower ticket prices to sell seats, and if they field a good one, the demand for seats may enable them to raise prices. So in that respect, how much they pay for salaries is loosely coupled to ticket prices. Give the customers a good product and they’ll pay more for it. Either way, they will always charge as much as the traffic will bear. The rules of economics haven’t been suspended for baseball.

Exactly my point. Player’s salaries and ticket prices only go one way, up. To not grasp this and to say that others do not understand “basic economic theory” is silly. It matters little that such a relation is not directly one-to-one. The net effect to the consumer is evident.

Actually, they don’t. During the last two seasons of the McCourt ownership, ticket prices at Dodger Stadium were reduced, and many bargain plans made available, a reflection of a ballpark that was often little more half full for many games. Since then, with close to full stadiums for most games and available season tickets becoming especially scarce, the seat prices have been nearly doubled and the bargain offerings all but gone. So, your point is wrong. The laws of supply and demand apply to baseball.

So…. One team, one time lowered ticket prices? Was EVERY ticket reduced? Have to try harder than that. I allowed in my original post for the anomaly of one team doing this. I’m talking 30 teams over multiple years across all of their seats and all of their players’ salaries.

A rather strange response to my having disproved your point, as if anyone should have to actually have to defend the idea that supply and demand is a real thing. I mean, it’s only one of the cornerstones of economics, going back to Adam Smith. And no, he didn’t play shortstop for the Washington Senators.

The price of everything only goes one way, and the salary in any profession, as long as you stay in one job for many years, only goes one way too.

BlueSkyLA, much respect but I’ve not been saying that S&D does not exist in baseball. Again, my original post is a refutation of the notion that higher salaries are IN NO WAY tied to higher ticket prices. Rather I’m saying that it matters not whether they are or aren’t because over the long slope of time BOTH increase. And by the way, everyone knows that Adam Smith played for the Boston Pilgrims.

You can’t completely ignore the owner’s finances. Look at what happened to the Mets when Madoff drained the owner’s money.

Pitching wins championships . Big deal they win a bunch of regular season games . In playoffs they both will bat .150 with a bunch of strikeouts .

Lol even if they add Harper and Machados salary Padres would still be out of the top 10 in payroll. Probably about league average. (Assuming both players get 30m)

Guess they must be meeting in the playoffs soon, since teams play 19 times a year. 5-15, 6-13, 8-11 the last three years. Pretty bad, but certainly not 20+.

Seriously? U took the time to correct this guy on the exact number of games the teams play when he’s just making an ordinary generalization? Do u feel good about yourself? Is it important in any way that kershawsgma was off by 1 game in a throwaway comment? Good god u must be fun at parties

Given you play 19 times a year, 20+ losses is an incredible achievement and worthy of the contracts alone

And once again we hear that the Padres are the front runner for a free agent…stay tuned, they are an excellent bridesmaid

The short answer is, we don’t know yet. The Padres made that big commitment to Hosmer with the idea they’d build more talent around him. If they do that and farm starts to contribute, it could work out quite well. So we don’t know yet is also the long answer.

Nobody wanted him at that figure and rightly so, to base a signing off a small sample size of games played in that park was a mistake.

You know, I feel like you don’t like the Phillies.. every comment I see from you on anything saying anyone is connected to the Phillies, there is something that is saying it won’t happen.

xabial…..”Means we’re getting close. I buy this more than the Phillies’ “$300M+” offer for Harper” and at the same time “Love it when contract figures are leaked!”

I have a legitimate question. Why do you trust one leak over another. We are away of your disdain for some NY writers. Is Andy Martino of SNY one of them? I only ask because he said today “know that the Yankees and Mets both went wire to wire with their disinterest. Despite some buzz about a Yankees meeting with Harper, it never happened.” Just curious about how you pick and choose.

I could see Rick Hahn offering 300 million for Machado. Anything over that and he’s signing with san diego or philly.

He also offered him $250M according to the most recent “reports.” None of these figures can be taken seriously.

He’s not coming to the Southside. He’s not a team player. He wants to be a part of a winning team, not help a team become one.

These kind of dollars are done at the ownership level. Rick Hahn will provide plenty of input but Jerry Reinsdorf will ultimately make the final call. For the sake of most White Sox fans, hopefully JR will emerge on top rather than be a bridesmaid once again as has been the norm with his most of his negotiations involving the White Sox and Bulls in free agency.

Goid for the Padres. Other teams want to sit on their hands and not go out and try to make a huge improvement to their team, take advantage. If they could land one it would be great for baseball

Couldn’t agree with you more coming from a Braves’ fan.. More competitive across the board the better for the sport. The same ole primary colors are getting borrrring!

What I think would be best for baseball is for Harper to scuttle back to the Nats, for Trout to sign a $ 420 Million 12-year extension with the Angels, and for Machado to finally sign in May for 3 years/84 million, with the Reds.

No no….what’s best for Baseball is for Harper to take his talents to Clearwater,so he can attend spring training with his buddies Jt & Rhys,as well as the rest of the Phillies.Then him & Rhys can stop flirting on social media…..And then 7,8,9 years from now,Washington will keep the outfield stealing rivalry going,by signing Haseley or Moniak.

According to the above numbers , Trout would have $420 Million reasons to “sign an extension with a perennial loser”

another fake news???!!? when its actually news we will all know it. if he either one doesn’t ign with philly I would want them signed far far away from the nl east.

Didn’t like them. You can get better food from other bertos, Santana’s, tacos el Gordo, or that one spot off fairmont by souplantation in mission valley

taco fiesta? you win if you’re chatting about that spot. that’s my local taco shop. but there is a sombrero’s across the street. hope you don’t mean that

Trujillo’s at SDSU, Herrera’s in Lemon Grove, Rigoberto’s in PB (never had the last one sober so not really a fair comparison)

Exactly. Cotijas in Point Loma is best, but only if you order the Mexican style, not the junk for the tourists.

The one across from the post office? That place has the best breakfast burritos. Love the hash brown burrito. Always ask for Mexican style or you get that IMO guac that is mostly sour cream.

Lol. I have a different place for carne asada burritos, breakfast burritos, carne asada fries, and fish tacos. I haven’t lived in sd for a decade but i miss it.

It’s not just California these really large salaries get hammered on either. We don’t see this taxation mentioned very often either, but have to wonder just how often teams in some states have to pay more when contract offers are near equal because of high cost of living and ridiculously high taxes some states have.

You pay taxes based on the state where your games are played at, not your home city. It does mean that 82 games a season are taxed at the California rate, but the rest are based on the taxes wherever you are playing. You also pay local taxes based on the city where your games are played. MLB players have to have great accountants.

MLB players are paid where they play, not where they live. They pay state and local taxes where they play. Federal income tax is paid where you live.

This is true, but 81 home games in California at 13.3% is a lot of money. When Jeter was playing and the Yankees had the NL West in interleague, 6 games in San Diego and San Francisco put Jeter in the top 5% of California taxpayers!

NY taxes are higher than Calfornia. Especially when you include the taxes in NYC that are much higher than in San Diego.

It’s called a “jock tax” and most but not all states have it. in the MLB D.C, TX and FL do not (I caught a glimpse of an article that said the tax was dropped in OH but I am not sure) and it’s not just the athletes who pay. It’s anyone who travels with the team from FO personnel to the equipment manager. It started in CA in 1991.

Then you have to add in 18 more games against the Giants and dodgers. Possibly more, I’m not sure about their interleague schedule.

Why ya gotta hate because they’re trying to piece together a winning team? Your team built around Freddie freeman, Padres want to build around Manny Machado and rightfully have the money to do so.

The reason Wil Myers contract bumps from $5.5 to $20 million in 2020 is not just because that would have been his first year of FA. The Padres get a bump in their 20 year, $1.4 billion TV deal from $30 million to $60 million starting with that season.

I wanted Machado on the Sox, but I don’t think I want another Albert Belle. I’d rather have Harper but that ain’t happening either. I just want these bums to sign somewhere so we can stop hearing about them. Or that’s probably what they want

Yeah attitude. That’s not what the Sox are all about. Locker room cancers. People who step on first baseman’s feet while half hearted running a ball out. You sure you are a Sox fan? Cause you are quite uninformed and only seem to want to argue. No offense( jeez can’t even say the a word In here apparently)

I’m glad you’re do perfect, sighting on your high horse. Sure, some of Machado and Harper’s actions have been… regrettable. So what. They’re young guys playing a sport for a living. That said, no teammate has ever accused Machado of being a “clubhouse cancer.”

Cause everyone is afraid to speak. Judging by your typing skills you are enjoying some libations, so I won’t argue with you. It’s like arguing with my granddaughter when she’s tired.

Chase Utley was an absolutely dirty player, but everybody just called him a “gamer” who “plays the game the right way.” Pete Rose ended the career of Ray Fosse by colliding into him in a meaningless exhibition game, and people called Pete Rose a “gamer” too. Manny Machado made one stupid comment after a game and, what, stepped on a first baseman while running out an out (I thought he didn”t hustle? Maybe look up cognitive dissonance sometime). I’ve heard Harper is “too” intense, so it’s another weird complaint. This is all narrative that isn’t shown on the field.

Adam Dunn didn’t have an attitude he just sucked. Maybe Adam Laroche with the circus around his son

Gtfo of here with this Adam Dunn Albert Belle crap. Machado is an elite ballplayer, not some aging slugger. Any Sox fans stuck in the past with this nonsense should just not watch baseball anymore. You’re clueless.

Thing about opening the season early with games in Japan, … fantasy baseball drafts will have to be conducted a week before most team’s opening day. A lot could change with rosters and personnel, post-draft and prior to opening day for games in the States.

What was wrong with Albert Belle? He played angry and he didn’t get along with the media. I felt they ganged up and taunted him at times. However, in Chicago, Albert Belle was an exceptional player. He left because the ChiSox ignored their end of the contract,

The Padres have placed the high bid for Machado. They signed the highest paid FA last season. They are not the same Padres as in the past.

It is part of Padre conspiracy. Owners all collude, held secret meeting in basement of Sacramento Dave and Busters. All agree that Padres sign one big bad contract each offseason. This season Machado or Harper. Great players, yes, but not equal wins alone. Sign for too much, cripple team. Then at next CBA, owners point at Padres spending but still losing. Owners have case, spending does not equal winning.

Ejemp — I like your conspiracy but big spending also equals the success of the Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, Astros, Dodgers (although the Dodgers have not pulled in the ultimate prize). You have a better case that big-spending does not work for small market teams. But the sample size is too small to be relevant at this point.

I was Asian guy in back for math support. Meeting happened! LOL, but my thoughts are big spending payroll great. But lopsided big spending on one player equals losing. Spread peanut butter really thick BUT evenly, too.

To a certain extent, you are correct. Only two teams have played in the WS with one player taking up more than 25% of their payroll. At $30 million, Machado would be about 23% of the Padres season ending payroll from last season. Two members of the ownership group have said that they can increase the payroll above that and there was an article in the San Diego paper indicating they have restructured their debt so they can put $8 million more towards MLB payroll.

Can’t confirm meeting took place but I was painter & decorator at Sacramento Dave & Busters. They upgraded from normal contract matt to super durable so evidence easily cleaned. And peanut butter.

As paint was drying 80 people in comedy disguises walked in & one intelligent looking Asian guy with pocket calculator & boiler suit (to avoid wet paint) – clearly Ejemp above…

We are speaking from same side of the ancient proverb that chunky marmalade favours no-ones trousers,,,,

It’s their agents. Dan Lozano (Machado) and Scott Boras (Harper) hate each other and are playing chicken to see who signs first, the other being in the driver’s seat.

Some guy outside my window told me harper and machado to yankees for 40 mill a year for 10 years ..with defered money til 2050…im so tired of garbage leaks by players agents…..

The best part about this is the incredible gullibility of Giants and Padres fans who buy into this stuff and both the fact that they think either team will sign one of these guys and that either of them could make them a contender.

Harper won’t sign until March, Boras plays a game of chicken with teams it’s his M.O.,and he’s going to the Phillies. I don’t think Machado wants to leave Cali so I think he’s headed to the Padres after Rick Hahn drives up the price of course.

Machado Lives in Miami, he just got traded to LA for a couple months. He REALLY wants to be a Yankee.

Sign both Manny and Harper, bring 10 of the top 100 prospects up this year, grab the wild card, win the pennant at 45-1 and the series at 90-1

Kevin Acee ‏@sdutKevinAcee Don’t know how many years involved in “$250-plus” offer for Manny Machado, don’t know structure. But #Padres got creative in landing Eric Hosmer, are working similar path here. One thing they can do is give larger signing bonus. No state tax on SB since Machado a Fla. resident.

Kevin Acee @sdutKevinAcee Kevin Acee Retweeted Jon Heyman I don’t know the years. But my understanding is offer to Machado is for more than $250 million.

I don’t think offering significantly more money than any other team counts as being “creative.” Did anyone outside of SD and KC even talk to Hosmer last year?

From what I heard today from the guy on my flight to Miami, the Padres offered a “historic” signing bonus. Not sure what historic means in dollars, but since we have seen signing bonuses of over $20 million… Again, not sure if the guy was who he said he was so take that with a grain of salt.

Nope. Padres just offered the most palatable contract to Hosmer. IIRC the Royals came close in terms of total guaranteed money but their offer was backloaded/deferred while the Padres’ offer was frontloaded which means higher NPV. Plus the Padres gave him an opt-out which carries some intrinsic value to the player. Royals gave him no opt-out.

Don’t let California get your money. Stay away from California teams while that communist is in the governors mansion

some people (like gocubs) really need to do a better job of understanding the difference between a capitalist and a communist. This system is so vetted that a communist or a socialist could never be elected to something as high as governor or even senator (and certainly not president). But the uninformed will believe anything to the left of the Clintons is communist, not realizing that Richard Nixon was further left than most Democrats today.

In fact, top earners in the eight years of Eisenhower’s presidency paid an income tax rate of 91 percent. That Ike was such a commie.

In what way am I wrong or clueless? The facts about the tax rate under Ike? Yeah I guess I should comb for some of those alternative facts. Found one. Shoot, I didn’t know that. According to this, Ike was a Reptilian from the Draco system. And the tax rate was only in place to distract from the real goal: harvesting negative energy from the masses. This makes so much sense. You scare people with the Cold War (and nuclear war) and then the Reptilians feed off the negative energy of the people. Thank you Basebal101 for leading me down a rabbit hole I can be proud of. Thank you for helping me to get a clue.

Sounds about right. I heard the gnats offered Harper 300 million. $1 per year for 300 million years, compensation deferred.

Hard to imagine either of these guys providing 30M worth of value per year. Neither is on the level of A-Rod, Miggy, Trout, Pujols or Mookie Betts.

I’m not sure what the $/WAR equation is looking like these days, but I don’t think it’s that hard to see them providing $30M/yr in value… That’s only like 3-4 WAR/season I’d imagine.

So Aaron Nola at 10.0 WAR was 111M last season and Rhys Hoskins’ 0.5 WAR was only worth 5.5M. Makes sense…

A rod was on roids and cheated most of this career. Couldn’t hit worth a damn in the playoffs either. Cabrerra fell apart mid 30s., as did pujols. Trout and betts are still under 30 and would be worth that..

Cabrera had some injury problems, I expect him to be the comeback POY. Far from falling apart as you stated.

The Tigers owe Miguel Cabrera a ridiculous amount of money and the last 2 seasons the power has seemingly been zapped out of his bat. I think he’s better than his 2017 showing but to suggest that isn’t an atrocious deal is laughable. He will certainly fall apart before the deal is up.

Cabrera was signed to an 8 year $240 million extension at 33 years old. He was past his prime and the deal was destined to be bad from the start. Machado is 26. His best years are yet to come. 26-30 is prime. Any team that signs him will get 5 of his best seasons. When his production declines after that, they have received enough value in those first 5 seasons to make up for the inevitable decline at the end.

Would they ever entertain the idea of signing them both? Would be interesting to see the Pads land them, maybe some sexy opt outs might help too?

Hope the Padres get Machado just so they could actually sign an expensive free agent that’s worth the expensive contract.

Machado is not worth an expensive contract. He is a dirty player who has already said he refuses to hustle.

How did we get from 8/210 from the White Sox to 10/280? Padres are bidding against themselves it appears at this point.

Sad that all of this garbage with them not signing will end up with one on a perennial loser where he will likely produce during a bulk of the contract (Machado), and one that likely won’t produce during a bulk of his (Harper) on a team that isn’t a perennial loser.

I almost wish Harper went to the garbage team in SD. Guy will break down after 30 and is high risk for injury the way he plays. Machado is the better player settling for money over legacy.

Never got why ppl thought these were 2 $300 million players. Machado isnt arod and bryce isnt stanton. They both have had about equal amounts of superstar franchise cornerstone type seasons as they have disappointment seasons. So, mlb owners r supposed to pay $300 million for 3/6 good seasons at front of the contract then a huge fall off and disappointment the other 3 and then an age falloff at the backend?

Don’t let this distract you from the the fact that in 1966, Al Bundy scored four touchdowns in a single game while playing for the Polk High School Panthers in the 1966 city championship game versus Andrew Johnson High School, including the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds against his old nemesis, Bubba “Spare Tire” Dixon.

Basquiat — More importantly, If Preller is able to sell one of your paintings he can up the ante. One of yours recently went for over $100 million.

Since other clubs can match that the Pads have to get creative im their pitch. San Diego alone can sell it. Yet if it comes down to dollars and cent plus years…do it Pads! Up the ante!

I do wonder if part of the Padres appeal to Harper might revolve around his religion. Harper, as we know, is a devout Mormon and was actually married in the Mormon temple in SD. SD has a huge Mormon population; I believe it’s the largest population of Mormons outside of Utah. (It’s also where I became a Mormon, many many years ago). His wife is obviously as devout as him, if not more; I can imagine that community being there holds some appeal for them.

I’m guessing that Harper is waiting to see if Machado signs with the Padres before he signs somewhere else. I truly believe that he wants to be on the west coast with all other things being equal. So if White Sox get Manny, I believe the Padres get Harper. If Padres get Manny, Harper goes to Philly.

The Pirates cleared enough space. I’m just waiting for the announcement and the Burgh is gonna erupt!

For fellow White Sox fans and anyone else who appreciates this kind of stuff – when factoring in State Income Tax (assuming # of years is equal in all scenarios): – $240M offer from the Padres is equal to a $219M offer from the White Sox – $240M offer from the Yankees is equal to a $230M offer from the White Sox – $240M offer from the Phillies is equal to a $245M offer from the White Sox

Factor in cost of living and the White Sox equivalent dollars get lower compared to SD and NYY. The Phillies are a threat on multiple fronts so hopefully they land Harper as that would allow the White Sox to offer less gross dollars than the other two teams but have the most valuable offer on the table.

I have a solution to this problem! Just put teams only in states with no income tax and low cost of living expenses. Alaska South Dakota and Wyoming are perfect. LOL

Nevada has no state tax, a team there makes the most sense. The Raiders are going to be playing there in 2020 and have an awesome stadium.

Maybe Harper is waiting to sign with the A’s when they move to Las Vegas and there is no income tax? LOL

The only problem with that is you have to get people to go watch the games. Not sure if Vegas can draw a consistent baseball fan base…. But then again, neither Oakland nor TB draws much themselves….

I am interested to see that as well, especially since I live here. There are not a lot of suburbs or smaller towns surrounding Vegas like there is in other markets like Denver and Phoenix. Henderson is rapidly growing though and then you have people from Needles, Kingman, Bullhead City, etc that are 2 hours away.

You also have to factor in the kind of idiots that make the taxes that high to begin with. I was born and raised in Long Beach, CA, but other than the weather it has nothing in common with the California I grew up in. I will still visit, but I will NEVER move back.

Nice post, but it’s not correct. Illinois has a higher tax burden than California. NY is the highest tax burden. cnbc.com/2018/04/10/us-states-with-the-highest-tax…

That story doesn’t add up… in CA, anyone making $1M or more annually has to pay 13.3% in Income Tax. How is their total tax burden only 9.57% when that figure includes property and sales tax as well?

When you’re making that kind of money it comes down to the environment and the safety of the City. You tell me what City is the safest, cleanest and best climate, thank you

nowheretogobutup….Believe it or not, not everyone wants to live in CA. I lived in and around SD for five years before moving back east. I have no desire to move back. I now live in northern AZ because the cold of the east coast is too much on my battered body. Where I live I get a nice winter of 40’s-60’s. The only problem is the summer is way to hot and long…it’s a trade off.

That’s why CA. has 11 million people and continues to grow, were tired of the zonies and Eastern folks moving out here stay away

Where in Northern Az do you get those temperatures? Flagstaff is 20-30s all winter. Sedona is 30 and 40s.

Had to google it. California’s population is about 40 million. google.com/search?q=california+population&rlz…..69i57j0l5.4349j0j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Koamalu….Flag and that area of Northern AZ fluctuates much more than that during the winter….I lived in that area at almost 7000 foot elevation for nine years. Mid 40’s were quite common but so was heavy snowfall some winters. I saw times (albeit few) of 50+ in the morning and white-out conditions by afternoon. The first year I lived there it snowed on June 1st. I currently live at at elevation of 500′ +/- along the Colorado river

nowheretogobutup….”stay away”……gladly. My only point was not all people are the same. Not everyone wants to live there. Some people like the mid-west, some like the mid-Atlantic, some prefer mountain living. It’s not an insult, no need to get defensive.

I sincerely doubt a few points in income tax matter much in the scheme of things. These guys will both have more money to last a hundred lifetimes.

I was saying 8yrs 260 million since day one of the offseason for Machado, guess I wasn’t off the mark too much.

The brown robes should sign manny ..bryce. .dallas..and gronk…that way we can at least party hardy when we finish 20 games back of the dodgers again….go for it padres..I love it

INITIAL PREDICTIONS 1. Bryce Harper – Fourteen years, $420MM. 2. Manny Machado – Thirteen years, $390MM

WOW! Padres Reportedly Offering $250MM is WAY!!!!!!! OFF THE MARK (At least eight years/$240MM with deferred money)

Preller has Aspergers – what an IDIOT!!! If the Padres sign either one of these two morons we will be doomed to last place for the next 10 years!!!

SP – Sonny Gray – 1 year for 7 Million SP = Dallas Keuchel – 3 to 5 years for 15-20 Million 2B – Daniel Murphy – 2 years for 12 Million SS – Galvis – 1 year for 4 Million

We would have had chance for the Wild Card ALL season and not be burdened with a monster long term contract!

If a deal goes through then Preller truly sucks at his job and the San Diego PADRES are clearly the worst run Professional organization in the history of professional sports!!!

Have you seen their payroll for the next few years? It’s the lowest in baseball… do you know of the talented young pitchers coming up in their farm system? They have faith in these young guys, and why the heck would they sign galvis if Tatis is making his debut this season. They will sign pitchers if still needed next offseason. They need a 3rd basemen desperately and Machado is young enough to be a legit signing for the long term. You need to chill

I hate it when a post makes sense. ha. What everyone needs to learn (or remember) is that the salaries of all these kids coming up from the farm system will make a few really expensive contracts bearable. Machado’s WAR has been exceptional, has it not? I have a concern about his knee surgeries. About him being a bad dude, well sometimes you need a bad dude to stir the pot. Bad press is better than no press. HA.

Galvis is a Stop Gap pure and simple… If you think all of our prospects are going to pan out then you’ve been watching the wrong organization for the last few decades.

Why would a small market team spend their whole bank roll on one player? Did it work with Myers or Hosmer? Manny batted 100% in the World Series on a great team with protection in the lineup what is going to do on the worst offense in baseball?

Toney_Dueces signing those guys wouldn’t help for 2019 and all but Kuechel would be gone by the time they’re competitive . The reason to sign one of these two is because they would still be Padres when we can compete. What food is Galvis and Gray for 1 season?

Galvis is stop gap until Tatis is up full time and you could easily flip Gray at the All Star Break for whatever we had to give up for him. The Reds did not break their break their farm system of him.

Padres need to pass on Bryce Harper and let the Phillies and White Sox duke it out for the overrated lefty. Focus on Machado and value his consistency on both offense and defense.

That’s actually a good question…. if you’re talking about legitimate free agent signings who do ended up contributing for a decent period of time….. I honestly don’t know. It goes even before the Preller regime. Maybe Mike Cameron?? (Don’t quote me on that….) but to your point, yes, it seems as though it has been forever. I’m not going to count some waiver wire pickup or rehabilitation pitching project who they flip after one year or something. Not gonna sit here and say Trevor Cahil or something. In the terms of this article and post…. significant free agent signings who have had a successful impact on the Padres for a sustained period of time….. that is a head scratcher to me

Forget both of them. When they get their guaranteed money over 8-10 years, they will decline in production because they have nothing to prove and nothing to push them to play for. A good example, I hate to say, is Albert Pujols statistics withe the Angels.

While I seriously doubt either of these players lands with the Padres, IF they end up signing Harper, it better only happen after a trade of one of their OF is made. They already have a logjam there with too many MLB ready OF and not enough positions for them (renfroe, Reyes, Myers, Margot, Cordero…. then add Harper). That would decrease any trade value the others have, because other teams essentially know you NEED to unload those players. As it stands now, without Harper, it’s a crowded outfield that they will have to juggle playing time…. throw Harper in the mix, now you actually NEED to trade somebody. Even with some players having minor league options remaining, it still decreases their value. If Harper is signed, someone needs to be traded BEFORE the signing occurs

When a team needs to unload a player, it decreases their bargaining power as opposed to not needing to unload a player. That’s pretty standard. If i have 6 apples… but I can only keep 5 apples…. you aren’t going to pay me full price for my extra Apple, because you (the purchaser) know I need to unload it.

Reyes and Cordero can both be sent back to the minors if needed. As Spackler said, their value will not be shifted despite your Apples example. In any case, any trade involving these guys will not only include them, but likely prospects as well, as the Padres will be seeking good starting pitching or a 3B (if they don’t sign Manny). And no combination of the Outfielders needing to be traded alone will be enough to get what’s desired. So the question will be the same for any interested team; how badly do you want a major league outfielder AND these prospects?…They also can’t just start trading these guys now on a “promise” or “confidence” Harper is gonna sign, not with the cash the Phillies are capable of tossing around at the last minute

You think if Preller knew he had Harper today (but unannounced), and made some phone calls, the other GMs wouldn’t know? And if he didn’t have Harper, why would he offer a trade?

The outfield logjam has been something that needed to be addressed since last offseason. Are you under the impression that only adding Harper creates a surplus of OF on the Padres major league roster? For the past two seasons, management has been very vocal about their having too many players for only a few positions (see: Wil Myers trying to play their base…). This isn’t something new. This is a situation they entered last season with…. have not addressed…. and are now entering this season with. And trade value DOES decrease if they are sent back to the minors. None of those guys mentioned are some stud all-star, victor robles type prospects. They are fringe every days players who nobody knows how they will be as full time major leaguers. Simply put: do you think Franmil Reyes has more trade value by continuing to put up his minor league statistics, or does he have more value if he continues to hit at the major league level like he did last year?? That answer is pretty obvious….. or at least, I hoped it would be obvious.

No, spack. Which is why I’ve stated consistently that an outfielder needed to be moved PRIOR to any pursuit of Harper. Otherwise, your bargaining power is simply lower when you ultimately need to move one of your other OF. If teams know you need to move something, which regardless of minor league options left, the Padres DO need to move some of their OF (as has been speculated and addressed for over a year now), that team will not be inclined to offer as much in a trade, as they know you are looking to unload. It always costs more to pry away an asset from another team, than it costs to take something of great surplus. I’m not saying those players will have zero value, but the fact is, their value in a trade is higher before Harper is signed and their value is higher performing in the majors than it is in the minor leagues.

At this point, what does it matter? If Preller doesn’t know about Harper, why trade any of those guys? One guy goes down in ST, suddenly there’s no longer too many outfielders.

Regardless, none of those extra outfielders have a whole lot of trade value right now, certainly not what you think they do.

New? Regarding what? I know the Padres are able to spend a normal allotment on J2 players this year. As you know, because of the overage in 2016, they were limited in 2017 and 2018. That “penalty” is over.

They were still able to spend the same amount of money, just not more than $300k on any one intl FA player. Now they can spend as much as they have on one player if they want or on 31 like they did so far in this period that started July 2 2018.

If I have 6 apples, but can stash 5 of the 6 in the minors if I need to, I don’t worry about trading any of them unless I add a 7th apple that is better than any of those 6 apples.

Players under 28 with 26 HR and .805 OPS are very valuable in trade. Go look up the last 4 trades of players that fit that criteria and tell us what the teams got for them.

I see Manny signing the 8 yr deal for $260M with the Padres with an opt out in year four. I don’t see Manny getting a better offer. Forget Harper don’t need him.

I hope you’re right. I would of course love to have Harper as well, but it’s hard enough to believe one of them signs with the Padres, let alone both…I’m also a big Renfroe fan, would really rather not have to trade him

How weird is it to think that Renfroe is actually older than Harper? I think, obviously, if you can get Bryce Harper you find a team that will give you something of value for Renfroe (Cleveland, which currently has no outfielders, might be a destination). But none of the Padres surplus of outfielders should be any kind of hindrance in signing Harper. As noted above, the Pads could send a couple guys back to triple-A, and Manny Margot struggled so badly last year that he may just be a fourth outfielder anyway.

Everyone is an expert in analytics, except me. I will leave it to the accountants to quantify the feasibility of signing both players, BH and MM, for my favorite team, the NYY.

The sad part of this is if SD lands both of them, the Padres still wouldn’t be likely to win the NL West. Harper or Machado PLUS Keuchel makes more sense.

Not this year no. But, if we honestly got both, I’m sure we’d make a big splash for Kluber. We’d have to give them an offer they can’t refuse. I’d also like to pry Nolan Jones, 3b as well. Manny will opt out in 3-4 years. Jones slides right in…or Potts.

Problem is,Indians would need another pitcher, and we don’t have any other than Lucchessi. Lamet is interesting as hell be back in July, in time for their playoff run

CLE would take that deal…..or at least they SHOULD given the fact that their catching corps couldn’t collectively hit their way out of a wet paper bag, and their OF is far and away the worst on paper in the majors.

Myers isn’t going to be included in any Kluber-to-Padres trade and the only way the Indians trade Kluber is if they are going into rebuild mode

The Indians have never done a rebuild under the Dolans and they’re not about to start. The Dolans won’t take the plunge to tear it all down and start over. They always keep a core of players and try to tinker around the edges.

Exactly. If they trade Kluber his production will just have to be replaced. And they most certainly aren’t trading him for Wil Myers.

Without Kluber the Indians still have one of the top rotations in the AL. They win the Central with or without him.

They win the AL central because it’s the weakest division in baseball. They don’t care about winning the division. They want to win a title. And without Kluber they have no depth. If any one of their other starters gets injured or struggles they’re gonna wish they still had him.

Way too much, Two catchers? 4 MLB players? No. Start over with one MLB OF and 2-3 prospects including one in the top 100.

I wish we could get Kluber for Renfroe, Baez, and our 25th best prospect for a top 5 pitcher. You are trippin.

I also included getting Nolan Jones tho so take a look again?? We have plenty of catchers and Austin Allen is not considered a lock to be a catcher. Myers is our best player. Definitely a player the Indians would take a gamble on depending on the money

Not as much as you are. Kluber is 33 years old in April. He is not getting a Sale type return and even Sale didn’t get what you proposed.

Start with an OF with 4 years of team control that hit 26 HR in 400AB in a pitchers park and had an .805 OPS. He is worth more than all but a handful of top prospects in baseball, the Indians said in previous trade talks that they were looking for MLB talent, and they have huge holes in their OF.

Add a top 100 prospect. Maybe Baez is not high enough at #72? OK, if you say so. He would be the #3 prospect on the Indians.

Austin Allen is a great hitter. He is on the 40 man and Preller said that they expect to see him in SD in 2019. He is considered a lock by Preller. What you think doesn’t matter compared to the GM.

Throw in a 1st round draft pick like Quantrill that is just outside the top 100 or a guy like Nix that showed great promise and that gets that deal done.

The Indians are a small market team They are not going to want to take on a deal that starts costing $20 million in 2020.

I wonder if anyone has thought about this? Hosmer is a guy that is about winning and a winning attitude. Would he necessarily get along in the clubhouse with Harper or Machado, who clearly play with a princess attitude?

Met a guy that said he was Dan Lozano on my American flight from LA to Miami this morning. Can’t confirm it was him because I have no idea what he looks like. He said the Padres had made the highest offer by $40 million so far and also the longest at 9 years. Also the only bid to be over $30 million AAV. According to him they have let teams know that they need their final offers today so Manny and Yaynee(?) can make a decision.

Take it with a grain of salt. We were in 1st Class, so he may have been Lozano or some business owner talking out of his behind.

Very interesting for sure. I just have a hard time wrapping my head around why an agent would randomly share this information with a stranger in the heat of negotiations? I hope everything about your story is true though, sounds like our chances would be pretty high

Sorry, but I don’t believe the information and you are correct to be skeptical. This looks like an agent plant to me.

Even if it was Lozano, he’s not going to tell you that the best offer on the table is 7 years at $28MM per year *(196) if that’s all he has – he’s going to LIE to you just in case you ARE someone who would post it on a blog.

The whole basis of this article is that Machado has offers from $240-280 million. His post make a lot of sense when you take that into account. The 7/175 rumor was bashed as a lie not only by Lozano, but by Heyman and Rosenthal.

Padres 9 yrs. $280M with opt out clause. However Padres can retain their trade clause in any year to any team.

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The opt out clause is the issue for me. Eliminates all the upside in the contract and none of the downside.

Well I hope we hear something this week so the Padre fans can raise a glass of IPA brewski from one of over 250 breweries in SD

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